TOP News: China Details 2008 Bearing Exports

伊凡

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- d: w. c5 f$ U8 ^5 xThe government of China, General Administration of Customs, via the state-controlled Xinhua news, has released data covering its exports of all types of bearings, for December 2008 and the full year.

China's state-volunteered export data is notoriously inaccurate, tending to dramatically understate both the quantity and value. Although the specific numbers may be suspect, the data does offer insight to general trends in volume, growth, and pricing which have proven valuable in terms of general industry analysis.

Export data for December 2008 [/td]

count [td]218,770,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$155.1 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.709 [/td]

[/td]

Compared to November 2008 [/td]

count [td]197,430,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$153.5 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.777 [/td]

[/td]

Compared to October 2008 [/td]

count [td]258,040,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$176.6 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.684 [/td]

[/td]

Compared to September 2008 [/td]

count [td]280,630,000 bearings [/td]

total value USD [td]$195.3 million [/td]

average value USD [td]$0.695

As the export data indicates, the global economic slowdown is having a strong impact on bearing manufacturers in China, masked somewhat by seasonality in the raw numbers. There are also numerous reports that year-end data is subject to many government "adjustments" needed to show production met levels indicated by the central planners.
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. Z2 `4 `5 r& L( pAlthough there is some seasonality apparent in the bearing export data supplied, China's bearing exports are clearly dropping more sharply than in previous years.
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July [td]324 million bearings [/td]

August [td]312 million [/td]

September [td]281 million [/td]

October [td]258 million [/td]

November [td]197 million [/td]

December [td]219 million

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Calendar year 2008
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2008 exports [td]3.349 billion bearings [/td]

2007 exports [td]3.265 billion bearings [/td]

[td]  [/td]

2008 export value [td]$2.06 billion [/td]

2007 export value [td]$1.55 billion

The most telling numbers, however, are eBearing.com's own rolling year-on-year figures for export growth. As 2008 wore on, we calculate China's bearing industry -- almost completely dependent upon exports -- suffered a dramatic slowdown which is reflected in the year-on-year growth rate from 2007:
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through June [td]15% [/td]

through July [td]14% [/td]

through August [td]13% [/td]

through September [td]11% [/td]

through October [td]10% [/td]

through November [td]5.5% [/td]

through December year-end [td]2.6%

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- v, V0 r. J8 I* Z3 H) _/ C首页新闻： 2008年我国轴承出口的详情
. y; J9 I' ?: ]1 x0 q/ y中共政府，海关总署，通过国家控制的新华社报道，已公布的数据涵盖其出口各种类型的轴承，为2008年12月和全年。
% d9 |& q$ g3 Z& V; D, d  ]我国国有自愿出口数据是出了名的不准确，往往大大低估的数量和价值。虽然具体数字可能是犯罪嫌疑人，并提供更多的数据的一般趋势，数量，增长，价格已证明有价值的条款一般行业分析。
, }) q9 i$ b! C( x下面的几个表格的标题是：（详见附件）
9 \4 }9 K& {: `5 C1 e出口数据2008年12月[ /运输署]
相较于2008年11月[ /运输署]
4 H7 L% N- t1 X7 N! X相较于2008年10月[ /运输署]
' a' Y- x5 ?* |相较于2008年9月[ /运输署]
由于出口数据表明，全球经济放缓是具有强大影响的轴承制造企业，有些是季节性蒙面的原始数字。还有许多报告说，今年年底的数据是受许多政府“调整”需要查看生产满足各级指出，由中央规划者。
虽然有一些明显的季节性出口轴承提供的数据，我国的轴承出口明显下降数额大大超过往年。
. m) I7 d( o* R* P2 J7 A7月[运输署]三万二千四百点〇万轴承[ /运输署]
/ H5 C& o8 l, d, B3 T& N8月[运输署]三万一千二点零零零万[ /运输署]
+ U8 a; ?) C7 l) h9 Z$ l0 [; M% i9月[运输署]二万八千百点〇万[ /运输署]
10月[运输署]二万五千八点〇 〇 〇万[ /运输署]
11月[运输署]一万九千七百点零零零万[ /运输署]
12月[运输署]二点一九〇亿
历年2008年
. u, U. v: ^* f7 H1 k: o+ e2008年出口[运输署]三十三点四九〇亿轴承[ /运输署]
2 w# D2 c2 O1 y: C0 L2007年出口[运输署]三十二万六千五点〇万轴承[ /运输署]
& ~# ]4 q& V/ a$ V* @9 G: H   [的TD ] [ /运输署]
* K1 o1 u+ v; ^2 Q  R2008年出口值[运输署]二十〇万六千点零万美元[ /运输署]
5 b+ j$ A: t9 d- Z7 J2007年出口值[运输署]一十五万五点零零万美元
' k- B0 l; ^) f' }* u7 f' Y最有说服力的数字，然而， eBearing.com自身滚动去年同期的数字为出口增长。在2008年的推移，我们会计算我国轴承行业-几乎完全依赖出口-遭受滑坡，这反映在去年同期的增长率从2007年：
6月[运输署] 15 ％ [ /运输署]
& [% [$ X  }/ v& x1 s8 I7月[运输署] 14 ％ [ /运输署]
- A1 T* u) O0 b, g# a到8月[运输署] 13 ％ [ /运输署]
到9月[运输署] 11 ％ [ /运输署]
到10月[运输署] 10 ％ [ /运输署]
2 q% ?, M7 ^  H6 i8 u5 D7 @, v到11月[运输署] 5.5 ％ [ /运输署]
到12月，今年年底[运输署] 2.6 ％

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