How do I see Chinese Shipbuilding industry

铁哥无敌

How do I see the development in the Chinese Shipbuilding industry in the next 1 – 2 years,  in the backdrop of  financial crises all over the world?.


Now ripple effect also goes to China. Most Chinese people feel uncertainties and worries too. However, personally, I’m still optimistic about China economic growth. The major reason is that China’s past   achievements are based on hardworking not speculation like USA and in a decade, China still has huge low cost human resource who is willing to work hard as always. This will make China a world economy drive engine and continue to grow.
In shipbuilding industry, the truth is that whole world building capacity is moving to China. Even Korea giant shipbuilders STX and Samsung set up big yards in China as well. It’s roughly estimate by Clarkson that completion output in China in 2008 would surpass 27 million dwt ( 20 million dwt in 2007 ). This upward trend will continue and lots of  experts believe that shipbuilding output in 2009 will surpass 30 million dwt. Many Chinese shipbuilders have good order backlogs to the year 2012. If no much cancellations, these shipbuilders can tide over the crisis.
Recently I visited some private-owned shipyards which I ignored before. They gave me a big surprise and really impressed me. They are bigger and much modern than  state-run Dalian, Guanzhou and Waigaoqiao shipyards we had visited. If no financial crisis, these private-owned shipyards will defeat the state-run shipyards for sure in terms of talent recruitment, operation flexibility and management efficiency. Facing global crisis, some Chinese yards mostly private-owned shipyards which are not strong enough may go under. I  think this is inevitable and understandable, as there are  too shipyards popping up recently which may result in  an adjustment and reshuffling to a more healthy development.
Considering the world building capacity is moving to China and China has plenty of low cost human resource, which is the core competitiveness of shipbuilding industry, I have reasons being optimistic about the development in the Chinese Shipbuilding industry in the next 1 – 2 years and beyond it.  

老丁1

原帖由 hitch 于 2009-1-16 17:45 发表
About the ship building industry, China is the biggest manufacture base of "low-tech and low-value bulk cargo”, not the whole shipbulding industry. Because this kind of ship need not much technology  ...

tydwyl

Daydream,guys,I hope,but i can not.

hitch

About the ship building industry, China is the biggest manufacture base of "low-tech and low-value bulk cargo”, not the whole shipbulding industry. Because this kind of ship need not much technology and research capacity, the key point is the cheap human resource cost, if we take a look at this industry trend, the trend is Europe -Japan - Korea - China, and this industry will definitely move to India Vietnam or any other low cost labor countries in the next few decades. That is not a good news for us.

On the other hand, the high tech and high value ship or offshore rig building industry are still in developing in Korea, Japan, Singapore. These manufactures hold the most developed technology and obtain the most of the profit in the shipbuilding industry.

So we should not be too positive about our shipbuilding industry! Every industry in China faces the same problem and we should work hard to shorten  the distance between us and developed country.

老丁1

" China has plenty of low cost human resource, which is the core competitiveness of shipbuilding industry" ?  ?     i can not understand.  
"If no much cancellations"    what is  the real situation about  this?  have they  enough order now?

小米li

原帖由 铁哥无敌 于 2009-1-9 18:55 发表

However, personally, I’m still optimistic about China economic growth. ··· This will make China a world economy drive engine and continue to grow.···

I hope so.But I think you have far more faith thanI have.