中国可以颠覆伊隆·马斯克的可再生能源之梦China Could Upend Elon Musk's RenewableEnergy Dreams
Elon Musk has as much as $10 billion, not to mention his own personalfortune, riding on the growth of TeslaMotors (NASDAQ: TSLA ) EV salesandSolarCity's (NASDAQ: SCTY ) solar and energy storage systemgrowth. It's one of the biggest bets ever made on renewable energy and it'smade him a household name across the country.
伊隆 马斯克有着上百亿美金资产，更不用说其个人资产，飞速增长的特斯拉电动汽车的销量还有太阳城公司的太阳能及能源存储系统的增长了，这是有史以来在可再生能源上所下的最大的赌注之一，因此这使他在全国范围内变得家喻户晓。
To dominate EVs, solar energy, and energy storage Musk is trying to build outbattery capacity before competitors can gain traction, and thus far he'sexecuted well on that strategy. There's really only one place with theresources and wherewithal to derail Musk's hopes to dominate both EVs andenergy storage -- China. The problem is that they may be doing just that.
马斯克试图在竞争对手发力之前增加电池容量，以此控制电动汽车、太阳能和能源储存领域，迄今为止，他的这一战略执行良好。只有一个真正拥有资源和资金地方，可以破坏马斯克的希望控制电动汽车和储能的愿望——中国，现在的问题是，他们可能会这么做的。
China betting big on electric vehicles
中国在电动汽车领域下了很大的赌注
The latest rumor out of China is that the country will levy a hefty gas tax andpour the revenue generated into expanding electric vehicle usage in thecountry. This could add billions to an industry that's already being supportedby a government that's purchasing EVs for its own use in mass. In many ways,the concept makes sense for China's future and follows a path the country hastaken in the past.
最近从中国传出的谣传，即这个国家将征收高额汽油税并把产生的收入投入在电动汽车上。政府已经大规模使用并支持电动汽车，这使得该行业增加了数十亿美元的投入。在许多方面，遵照国家指定的道路的这个概念对中国的未来很有意义。
Chinese cities are congested with smog from everything from coal electricplants to the amount of gas burned by the growing middle class. So, there's anenvironmental driver for EVs.
中国城市烟雾缭绕，不断壮大中产阶级的的消费使得从煤炭发电厂中燃烧出了大量气体。所以，这里有一个对电动汽车的环境驱动力。
But China also likes to be an early mover in new industries, particularly whenlarge scale manufacturing is involved. EVs and batteries could be a huge growthmarket for China over the next few decades, and it's only logical that theywould make a push into being a major supplier for the industry. China has usedstate-run banks to build out capacity in industries it wants to dominate, likeelectronics and solar, and I think batteries could be next, but I'll cover thatbelow.
但中国也喜欢在新产业，特别是在大规模生产上做先行者。电动汽车和电池市场在未来几十年可能会有一个巨大的增长，唯一合乎逻辑的是，他们会尽最大的努力成为这个行业的主要供应商。中国国有银行被用来支持构建它想占主导的行业的能力，如电子和太阳能，我认为电池可能是下一个，如下我将介绍。
The biggest driver of China's push into EVs could be the country's growingreliance on foreign oil. You can see below that the gap between China's oilproduction and consumption is growing each year and it now has to deal withcountries like Iraq, Iran, and Syria just to meet its energyneeds.
中国推进电动汽车的最大驱动力可能是因为该国对外国石油的依赖。下面你可以看到，中国年年增长的石油生产和消费之间的差距，其现在不得不处理这些国家的事物，如伊拉克、伊朗和叙利亚只是为了满足其能源需求。
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If EVs can reduce China's reliance on foreign oil it would be logical to pushtheir adoption. The economic benefits would be a side effect of the improvedenergy security, something China's leaders have to be considering at themoment.
如果电动汽车可以减少中国对外国石油的依赖，那么推动该领域的就是符合逻辑的了。经济效益将是提高能源安全的一个副作用，这是中国领导人必须考虑的问题。
Why this is a problem for Elon Musk
为什么这对马斯克会是个麻烦
You may think that China's expansion into EVs would be good for Tesla and onsome levels that would be right. It would open up a new market for the Model S,Model X, and future Model 3, something that could be a positive forTesla.
你可能认为中国在电动汽车上的扩张将有利于特斯拉，这在某种程度上是正确的。它将为Model S， Model X,，还有未来的 Model 3（译者注：特斯拉车型）打开一个新的市场，有一些对特斯拉是有积极意义的。
But if China decides to pour billions of dollars into electric vehicles andbattery manufacturing it could be devastating for Tesla. Musk is spending $5billion to build battery capacity at the Gigafactory in Nevada, and he now hasto find end market demand for not only cars but batteries as well.
但如果中国决定将数十亿美元投入电动汽车和电池制造，那么这对特斯拉可能是毁灭性的。马斯克在内华达州花费了50亿美元建造的生产电池的超级工厂，而且他现在必须找到终端市场需求，而不能仅仅是汽车电池。
Part of the logic in building the Gigafactory was to lower costs and make EVsand energy storage more competitive in the market. But if China floods themarket with low-cost product it could reduce Tesla's potential margin frombatteries and create a competitor both in EVs and energy storage. It'ssomething the country has done before in renewable energy.
有一部分人的逻辑是建设超级工厂可以降低成本并使电动汽车和能源储存在市场中变得更具竞争力。但如果中国以低成本的产品充斥市场，就可以降低特斯拉在电池产业上的潜在利润，并形成一个在电动汽车和储能上竞争对手。这是该国在可再生能源上已经做过的事。
China has played this game before
中国以前就玩过这招
This isn't some far fetched idea I'm making up to scare Tesla or SolarCityinvestors, it's something we've seen play out before.
这不是我用一些不靠谱的想法来吓唬特斯拉或超级工厂的投资者，我们以前就看过这出。
In the late 90s and 2000s when China decided it wanted to be a computingpowerhouse the country's state-run banks poured billions of dollars intobuilding out manufacturing capacity to compete with U.S. companies. Eventually,PC manufacturers in the U.S. either went bankrupt, sold to Chinese competitors,or decided to outsource electronics manufacturing to China. When China wantssomething -- it gets it.
在90年代末和2000年左右，当中国决定想成为计算强国的时候，中国国有银行投入了数十亿美元以建设其生产能力并与美国公司竞争。最终，个人电制造商们就在美国破产了，或被卖给了中国的竞争对手，或决定把电子制造业外包给中国。当中国想要某个东西——它就会得到它。
More recently, the solar industry was upended by a massive expansion in Chinesecapacity, funded by Chinese state-run banks. Billions poured into the market,flooding the solar industry with product and pushing out suppliers that didn'thave the cost structure or financial backing to keep up. Most U.S. and Europeansolar manufacturers went bankrupt leaving Chinese suppliers like YingliGreen Energy and Trina Solar who are supported by Chinese banksto this day.
最近，太阳能产业被中国的大规模扩张能力颠覆了，中国国有银行将数十亿美元如洪水般的倾倒入市场，将那些没有成本结构或资金支持的太阳能产业与产品供应商挤出市场。大多数美国和欧洲的太阳能制造商因此破产，使得中国供应商如英利绿色能源和天合光能等由中国的银行所支持的公司存在至今。
If China decides to put billions into building out EV capacity -- particularlybatteries -- it would put downward pressure on costs that currently don'texist. If China does make the investment in EVs that's been rumored, we couldsee a similar dynamic to what happened in the solar industry in the late 2000sand early 2010s. Investors had put huge multiples on solar companies, and whenChina flooded the market the stocks collapsed as U.S. companies struggled tosurvive under the pressure.
如果中国决定投入数十亿美元建设其电动汽车产能，尤其是电池产业，这将压低成本，而这种情况目前尚不存在。如果中国在电动汽车的投资是谣言，我们可以看到在太阳能产业在2000年代末和2010年代初类似的动态发展。投资者把巨量的资金投入到太阳能公司中，当中国涌入市场时，股市崩溃了，美国公司在压力下挣扎求生。
Here's a small snapshot of happened to solar investors from 2008-2012 -- andthese are two companies that survived. Many more went bankrupt because ofChinese oversupply.
这里有一个从2008年到2012年发生在太阳能投资者身上的小图，仅有两个公司幸存下来，更多的破产了，因为中国的产能过剩。
China is the threat Elon Musk should be watching
中国威胁马斯克应该被关注
Anytime I see that China is going to put billions into an industry I cringe atthe effect it will have on U.S. companies. Without some sort of technologicaladvantage over Chinese competitors it becomes a price war, even for a companylike Tesla.
每当我看到中国将投入数十亿美元投入到一个行业，我会害怕它对美国公司的影响。如果我们没有某种对中国竞争对手的技术优势，那么就会变为价格战，甚至对于像特斯拉这样的高技术公司也是一样的。
Remember that a significant percentage of capacity (around 30%-40%) in Tesla'splant is earmarked for energy storage for SolarCity. But if Tesla's batteriesaren't cost competitive with Chinese commodity batteries it would be acompetitive disadvantage for SolarCity to stay with Tesla
要知道，相当比例的能力(约30% - -40%)在特斯拉的这家超级工厂中被用于能量储存方面。但如果特斯拉的电池不能与中国商品电池在价格上取得优势，那么超级工厂和特斯拉在一起就会处在竞争劣势。
At the very least, this is a threat worth watching for investors. Both TeslaMotors and SolarCity are priced as if they'll grow profitably for years tocome, but if China decides it wants to own EVs or the future of batterymanufacturing it could be terrible for both companies. China has done thisbefore, and I wouldn't bet against them doing it again.
至少，这是投资者值得关注的一个威胁。特斯拉汽车和太阳城的定价好像显示他们在未来几年内将盈利增长，但是，如果中国决定要自己的电动车或未来电池制造业，这对于两家公司来讲可能是可怕的。中国已经这样做过，我不会赌他们不会再做一遍。
Travis Hoium has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Foolrecommends SolarCity and Tesla Motors. The Motley Fool owns shares of SolarCityand Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believethat considering a diverse range of insights makes us betterinvestors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
霍伊姆对任何股票均无立场，The Motley Fool 推荐太阳城和特斯拉汽车的股票，The Motley Fool 自己也拥有所推荐的太阳城和特斯拉汽车的股份，试试我们的傻瓜式的通讯服务，免费30天！我们网站的人员可能并非所有人都持有相同的观点，但我们都相信，四处撒网，总有能中的 。 The Motley Fool 拥有信息披露政策。（译者注：这是TheMotley Fool 网站文章，The Motley Fool 是 美国知名的投资网站 ）
发表于 2014-9-18 08:15:39
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